United States Court of Appeals For the First Circuit

No. 24-1295

SONIA PATRICIA MAYANCELA GUAMAN; JESUS ADRIAN SANTANDER-PADILLA; J.A.S.M.; F.C.S.M.,

Petitioners,

v.

PAMELA J. BONDI, United States Attorney General,*

Respondent.

PETITION FOR REVIEW OF AN ORDER OF THE BOARD OF IMMIGRATION APPEALS

Before

Gelpí, Thompson, and Rikelman, Circuit Judges.

Kevin P. MacMurray, with whom MacMurray & Associates was on brief, for petitioners.

Zachary S. Hughbanks, Trial Attorney, Office of Immigration Litigation, with whom Anthony P. Nicastro, Assistant Director, Office of Immigration Litigation, and Brian Boynton, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Civil Division, were on brief, for respondent.

* Pursuant to Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 43(c)(2), Attorney General Pamela J. Bondi is automatically substituted for former Attorney General Merrick B. Garland as respondent. April 28, 2025 THOMPSON, Circuit Judge. Petitioners Sonia

Mayancela-Guaman ("Mayancela") and her husband, Jesus

Santander-Padilla ("Santander"), are indigenous people and

citizens of Ecuador. Santander immigrated to the United States

without admission or parole in 2015. Mayancela likewise immigrated

to the United States without being admitted or paroled. Her minor

children, F.C.S.M. and J.A.S.M., accompanied her on her passage.

Being neither admitted nor paroled, the Department of

Homeland Security ("DHS") charged Santander, Mayancela, J.A.S.M.,

and F.C.S.M. with removability pursuant to section 212(a)(6)(A)(i)

of the Immigration and Nationality Act ("INA"). Mayancela and

Santander did not dispute their removability. However, in an

effort to avoid removal, Santander and Mayancela -- together with

her minor children -- each applied for asylum, withholding of

removal, and protection under the Convention Against Torture

("CAT"). An immigration judge ("IJ") in the Boston Immigration

Court denied those applications, and the Board of Immigration

Appeals ("BIA" or "Board") affirmed the denials.1 Mayancela and

Santander now petition this court for review of the agency's

decision. For reasons to follow, we grant the petition for review

in part, vacate the agency's decision insofar as it denied

1When discussing the BIA and the IJ's decisions as a unit, we refer to them jointly as "the agency." See Pineda-Maldonado v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2024).

- 3 - Mayancela's asylum and withholding of removal claims, and remand

for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.

BACKGROUND

We will first introduce the reader to Mayancela and

Santander, and then proceed to analyze the arguments in their

petition to this court relative to the agency's decision on their

applications for asylum, withholding of removal, and protection

pursuant to the CAT. We warn that the facts underlying Mayancela

and Santander's petition, which we draw from the administrative

record, including petitioners' testimonies, which the IJ found

credible, are quite grim. See Adeyanju v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2022).

Mayancela grew up in an indigenous community in

Chorocopte, a rural parish of Cañar, Ecuador. Mayancela was raped

throughout her early teens in Chorocopte by her cousin, Edison.

She was 13 years old at the time the pattern of consistent sexual

violence, occurring on at least a biweekly basis, emerged. During

the incidents, Edison threatened to hurt Mayancela and her family

and told her that the sexual abuse of Ecuadorian women was "normal

and that it was something that people did and [that she] just had

to live it." Mayancela heeded Edison's threats and assertions,

and she did not tell anyone what was happening to her. Edison's

abuse was only revealed when Mayancela became pregnant at the age

of 16 as a result of the rapes.

- 4 - Upon discovering her daughter was being abused,

Mayancela's mother immediately reported Edison's conduct to the

local Ecuadorian police. However, the local police's involvement

only caused Edison's aggression toward Mayancela to escalate.

After becoming aware of the police report, Edison contacted

Mayancela via text message and intensified his threats to hurt her

and her family, now including her unborn child. "If [you] are

going to play, we are going to play," Edison forewarned her.

Edison then fled to Quito -- eight hours' distance from

Cañar -- thus evading the attempts by local police to bring him to

account for his transgressions against Mayancela.

Edison's menacing of Mayancela continued for several

years after his flight to Quito, as he was never held legally

accountable by Ecuadorian authority for his criminal acts against

her. He eventually returned to Cañar, where he continued to harass

Mayancela, her family, and her child. On one occasion, when

Mayancela's child was just a few years old, Edison appeared

unannounced at her family's home, where he drunkenly threatened

Mayancela's mother with a knife and tried to hit her. On another,

he tried, without permission, to pick up Mayancela's child from

school, and on another, a woman Mayancela believed Edison directed

attempted to abduct her child at a bus stop. Edison would also

follow Mayancela when she went into the city, and he continued to

threaten her over text messages. Mayancela explained in her

- 5 - written declaration to the agency that these actions caused her to

"live in fear."

To escape her persecutor, Mayancela first migrated to

the United States in September 2009, around a year after the birth

of her child. As she explained to the IJ, Edison "had [her] under

threat and [she] just wanted to leave the country." Mayancela was

detained shortly thereafter, and, following a five-month detention

in an immigration detention facility, she was removed from the

United States in January 2010. While Edison's depraved conduct

provided Mayancela's impetus for migrating on this occasion, she

did not seek relief from removal at the time, considering "[she]

had to wait three more months to fight her case" and because, back

in Ecuador, "[her] mom was suffering and also [her] kid."

Removed to Ecuador without a fight, Mayancela returned

to live with her mom, grandmother, niece, and child in Chorocopte.

During this chapter of her life in Ecuador, she met her now-husband

and co-petitioner, Santander. Santander was the milkman who

collected milk from the cows on her family's and other nearby

farms. With Santander, she had her second child.

Six years after her return to Ecuador, Mayancela again

fled to the United States in 2016, after the incident where Edison

came to her family's home intoxicated and threatened her mother

with a knife. Mayancela remained in the United States until

October 2021, when she briefly returned to Ecuador to retrieve her

- 6 - children, who had been living in the country with her mother, after

the school pick-up and bus-stop encounters which she perceived as

attempted kidnappings of her child coordinated by Edison.

Mayancela reentered the United States with her children the

following month in November 2021, and she has remained in the

United States with her children since.

Like Mayancela, petitioner Santander also grew up in an

indigenous community in Cañar, Ecuador. While in high school in

Cañar, Santander became interested in and later involved with the

Movimiento de Unidad Plurinacional Pachakutik -- Nuevo

País ("Pachakutik Party"), a political party that represents the

interests of indigenous Ecuadorians. Santander was drawn to the

Pachakutik Party because he faced marginalization and inequality

"as an indigenous," and because he believed "that [the] political

party w[ould] help" indigenous persons like himself.

Santander's involvement with the Pachakutik Party

included attending party gatherings and rallies, "put[ting] flyers

around the city in Cañar," and participating in "protests in

support of indigenous rights." At one such protest around 2014,

military-garb-clad members of the then-leading political party,

the Alianza Pais ("PAIS"), attacked the Pachakutik Party members

present, including Santander, and hit them with metal rods.

Individuals who identified themselves as members of PAIS later

arrived at Santander's home and threatened to kill him if he

- 7 - continued to support the Pachakutik Party. Around this same time,

Santander would also receive ominous phone calls "say[ing] that

[he] should not support [the Pachakutik Party] or they would hurt

[him]." In view of these threats and acts of politically motivated

violence, Santander sought refuge under the aegis of the local

police; but the police informed him that they could not offer

protection because he was "too far away," and advised it would be

best for him to leave the country. Santander thus fled to the

United States around July 2015.

THE AGENCY PROCEEDINGS

Soon after Santander arrived in the United States at or

near McAllen, Texas, DHS charged him with removability as a

noncitizen present in the United States without being admitted or

paroled on July 24, 2015. Mayancela, F.C.S.M., and J.A.S.M. were

similarly charged with removability on November 21, 2021, a few

days after Mayancela reentered the United States with her children

at or near San Luis, Arizona. As relief from removal, Mayancela,

together with F.C.S.M and J.A.S.M. as derivative applicants, and

Santander each applied for asylum, withholding of removal, and

protection pursuant to the CAT.2 In her application, Mayancela

2 Mayancela's minor children stood to benefit only from her asylum application. While the INA provides for derivative asylum in

(b)(3)(A), it does not provide for derivative withholding of removal, nor does the CAT provide derivative protection.

- 8 - premised her asylum and withholding of removal claims on her fear

of future persecution at Edison's hands on account of her

membership in the particular social groups Ecuadorian women and

Ecuadorian females, while Santander premised his claims on his

political opinion and his fear of future persecution based on its

expression. The couple's respective CAT claims were based on a

fear of future torture for principally the same identified reasons.

On July 24, 2023, the IJ issued a decision denying petitioners'

applications in their entirety and ordering petitioners' removal

to Ecuador.

The IJ's Decision

Let us set down the burden petitioners faced before the

IJ to succeed on their applications' claims, then we will move

forward to examine the IJ's decision. To satisfy the criteria for

asylum, Mayancela and Santander were faced with the burden to prove

either that they (1) had suffered past persecution or (2) had a

well-founded fear of future persecution on account of their race,

religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or

political opinion.3 Journal v. Keisler,

(1st Cir.

3Ultimately, to succeed on an asylum claim, an applicant who establishes past persecution on account of a protected ground must additionally maintain a well-founded fear of future persecution on the same basis. See Chen v. Lynch,

(1st Cir. 2016). "If the petitioner establishes past persecution, [however,] he is entitled to a presumption that his fear of future persecution is well-founded; the burden then shifts to the government to show a change in country conditions in order to rebut

- 9 - 2007) (citing

(a)(42)) (outlining an asylum

claimant's burden); see also Lopez de Hincapie v. Gonzales,

(1st Cir. 2007) (explaining that "[t]o rise to the

level of persecution, the sum of an alien's experiences must add

up to more than ordinary harassment, mistreatment, or suffering");

Orelien v. Gonzales,

(1st Cir. 2006) (noting that,

in the immigration context, "[p]ersecution always implies some

connection to governmental action or inaction"). The burden for

petitioners' withholding of removal claims was even higher,

requiring proof by a "clear probability" that if returned to

Ecuador they would be persecuted on account of a statutorily

protected ground. See Pineda-Maldonado,

(quoting

Sanchez-Vasquez v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2021)). And

their CAT claims required something even further: proof that they

would more likely than not be tortured at the hands of the

Ecuadorian government or with its consent or acquiescence should

they return to the country. See De Oliveira v. Mukasey,

(1st Cir. 2008); see also Samayoa Cabrera v. Barr,

(1st Cir. 2019) (defining "torture" for the purpose of

evaluating a CAT claim).

Burdens in place, we now briefly explain how the IJ

reached his decision resolving petitioners' claims. Considering

that presumption." Decky v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2009) (emphasis added).

- 10 - Mayancela and Santander's claims for asylum, withholding of

removal, and protection pursuant to the CAT, the IJ found, as a

preliminary matter, that both Mayancela and Santander testified

credibly. The IJ also determined that there were no statutory

bars with respect to Mayancela's application. With respect to

Santander's application, however, the IJ found that it was filed

after the one-year statutory deadline for asylum claims, and,

moreover, that there were no extraordinary or changed

circumstances warranting an exception for a late filing. See Pan

v. Gonzales,

, 84 n.3 (1st Cir. 2007) ("An asylum

application filed beyond th[e] one-year window may nonetheless be

considered if the alien can show changed or extraordinary

circumstances."). The IJ nevertheless proceeded to address the

merits of Santander's asylum claim considering its overlap with

his timely claim for withholding of removal. See Decky,

(explaining that when a petitioner brings claims for both

withholding of removal and asylum, we usually focus on the

petitioner's asylum claim).

Beginning with Mayancela's asylum application, the IJ

found that the abuse Mayancela endured in Ecuador at Edison's hands

"clearly establishe[d] the requisite harm" to constitute past

persecution. The IJ also found that the particular social groups

allegedly motivating Edison, "Ecuadorian women" and "Ecuadorian

females," were "legally cognizable." See Sanchez v. Garland, 74

- 11 - F.4th 1, 6 (1st Cir. 2023) (outlining "the test this circuit has

accepted for identifying a particular social group"). That said,

the IJ nevertheless concluded that Mayancela did not meet her

burden to show that the persecution she experienced was "on account

of" her membership in either social group. See Hincapie,

("Another element of an asylum claim based on persecution

involves the nexus requirement, that is, whether the harm, if

otherwise sufficient, has occurred (or is anticipated to occur)

'on account of' one of the five statutorily protected grounds.").

The IJ instead concluded that Mayancela was persecuted solely

because her cousin "was a violent individual" who "was using

drugs," and who "was also drunk at the time" of the incidents of

sexual abuse.

Turning to the prospect of future persecution, the IJ

determined that Mayancela did not have an independent well-founded

fear she would be persecuted on account of a protected ground

should she return to Ecuador. In support of that conclusion, the

IJ noted Mayancela had twice before entered the United States

without applying for asylum, pointed out that Mayancela had

voluntarily returned to Ecuador in 2021 despite her cousin's

presence there, emphasized that her cousin "ha[d] not abused her

in approximately 17 years and ha[d] not had any contact with her

in approximately seven," and resolved therefore that no objective

well-founded fear of future persecution laid. See Keisler, 507

- 12 - F.3d at 12 (explaining that to determine whether an applicant has

established "a well-founded fear of future persecution," absent

the benefit of the rebuttable presumption, "we apply a two-part

test entailing both subjective and objective elements").

Mayancela's asylum application was therefore denied, along with

her application for withholding of removal, considering that

claim's higher burden. See Amouri v. Holder,

(1st

Cir. 2009) ("When an alien fails to establish a well-founded fear

of persecution sufficient to ground an asylum claim, a counterpart

claim for withholding of removal (that is, a claim premised on

essentially the same facts) necessarily fails."). The IJ also

denied Mayancela's application for protection pursuant to the CAT.

He emphasized that the local Ecuadorian police attempted to locate

Edison by telephone and by mail when Edison's criminal conduct was

first reported, and he concluded, therefore, that Mayancela failed

to show she would more likely than not be tortured at the hands of

the government or with its consent or acquiescence should she

return to Ecuador. See De Oliveira,

.

Moving to Santander, the IJ concluded that Santander was

a victim of past persecution on account of a protected

ground -- his political opinion -- concentrating on the incident

around 2014 where Santander was physically attacked and hit with

metal objects by military-garb-clad members of PAIS while

participating in political protest as a member of the Pachakutik

- 13 - Party. See Hincapie,

. The IJ also highlighted as

support for his past-persecution determination that Santander's

pleas for protection to the local police after the incident were

rebuffed, concluding that that evidence supported a government

nexus. See Orelien,

; Medina-Suguilanda v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2024) ("Serious abuse inflicted by a

private actor based on a protected ground is not itself sufficient

to establish past persecution. For abusive, discriminatory

treatment to suffice, it must also have a government nexus.").

Typically, when an asylum applicant establishes past

persecution, as Santander did here, the applicant is entitled to

the presumption that their fear of future persecution on that same

ground is well-founded. See Decky,

; see also

Rashad v. Mukasey,

(1st Cir. 2009) (explaining that

the same rebuttable presumption also applies to withholding of

removal claims). However, in this case, the IJ determined

Santander was not entitled to any such presumption considering his

untimely application. Nevertheless, because Santander met the

usual burden to show past persecution, and considering the overlap

between his untimely asylum claim and his timely claim for

withholding of removal, the IJ chose to advance and consider

whether the government met a hypothetical burden to show by a

preponderance of the evidence that there had been a fundamental

change in Ecuador's conditions negating Santander's fear. See

- 14 - Mendez v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2023). And the IJ

determined that the government had satisfied that rubric.

In support of its conclusion that the government had

established a fundamental change in circumstances rebutting

Santander's particular fear of future persecution on account of

his membership in the Pachakutik Party, the IJ identified evidence

submitted by the government indicating that Ecuador's president at

the time Santander was persecuted, President Rafael Correa, had

been voted out of office and yielded power peacefully, as well as

testimony from Santander himself explaining that the then-current

mayor of his hometown was a member of the Pachakutik party and his

old coworker. Because that evidence rebutted Santander's

particular fear of future persecution in the IJ's view, Santander's

claim for asylum, along with his claim for withholding of removal,

was denied. Santander's claim for protection pursuant to the CAT

was likewise denied; the IJ, considering primarily the same

evidence, concluded that Santander had not shown the requisite

likelihood he would be tortured upon return to Ecuador at the hands

of the government or with its consent or acquiescence.

The BIA's Decision

Following petitioners' appeal, the BIA, the body

responsible for reviewing the IJ's decision, adopted and affirmed

the IJ's decision while adding its own gloss. Considering

Mayancela's asylum application, the Board recognized that

- 15 - Mayancela's membership in the social groups "Ecuadorian women" and

"Ecuadorian females" may have made her more "susceptible" to

Edison's depraved conduct, which it agreed arose to the level of

persecution. But the Board opined Mayancela's heightened

vulnerability, alone, was not sufficient to establish that the

persecution she endured was "on account of" her group membership,

citing Matter of M-E-V-G-,

(BIA 2014)

("[C]ertain segments of a population may be more susceptible to

one type of criminal activity than another . . . but not all

societal problems are bases for asylum."). According to the BIA,

"[Mayancela's] observation that she is a woman and that her cousin

did not rape males . . . [therefore] f[e]ll[] short of

establishing that her gender was one central reason for the abuse."

In its consideration of the evidence directly addressing

Edison's motivations and not simply Mayancela's vulnerabilities,

the BIA reasoned that the central question around which Mayancela's

asylum claim revolved -- what motivated Edison to harm her? -- was

a question of fact subject to the Board's clear error review. And

the Board concluded under that rubric that "the Immigration Judge

did not clearly err in finding that the evidence [did] not

establish that any past or feared harm was or would be on account

of a protected ground." "[R]ather," the BIA resolved, the IJ

appropriately determined "[Mayancela's] past and/or feared harm

relate[d] solely to criminal activity by a cousin who was violent

- 16 - and sexually abused [her] because he was using drugs and/or drunk."

The BIA thus affirmed the IJ's denial of Mayancela's asylum and

withholding of removal claims on the ground that Mayancela failed

to show that "her status as an Ecuadorian Woman and Ecuadorian

Female was one central reason for the harm."4 The BIA likewise

affirmed the IJ's denial of Mayancela's application for protection

under the CAT, finding that the IJ did not clearly err in

forecasting the unlikelihood that Mayancela would be tortured with

government consent or acquiescence if removed to Ecuador.

Moving to Santander's claims, the BIA, at the timeliness

threshold, declined to resolve whether Santander had shown

extraordinary or changed circumstances meriting consideration of

his untimely asylum application and therefore entitling him to the

presumption that his fear of future persecution was well-founded.

The BIA reasoned that resolving the timeliness issue was not

necessary because whether Santander's application was timely or

not, the application failed, citing Palma-Mazariegos v. Gonzales,

4 The Board also indicated that Mayancela's claim failed because she failed to show "that the harm was intended to overcome or based on animus towards [Ecuadorian women or Ecuadorian females] generally," citing Matter of M-R-M-S-,

(BIA 2023), and Morales v. Garland,

(4th Cir. 2022). However, as we later discuss in further detail, see infra note 8, Mayancela was not required to establish that Edison possessed "animus" towards her proposed social groups to succeed on her asylum claim. See Pineda-Maldonado,

("The asylum statute does not say anything to suggest that 'animus' toward a particular social group is required for an applicant to be eligible for asylum, as it uses the phrase 'on account of.'").

- 17 -

(1st Cir. 2005) (declining to determine if the

presumption of a well-founded fear of persecution applied because

"even if we were to assume, for argument's sake, that the

petitioner is . . . afford[ed] . . . the benefit of the ensuing

presumption, we still would conclude that the government has

provided enough evidence both to rebut the presumption and to show

that there is no sufficient likelihood that the petitioner will

face persecution should he be returned"). That was so because,

according to the BIA, whether Santander was entitled to the

presumption of a well-founded fear of future persecution, the IJ

appropriately concluded that the government established a

fundamental change in Ecuador's circumstances sufficient to rebut

that presumption. See

The IJ's decision to deny Santander

asylum and withholding of removal was therefore affirmed on that

ground, as was the IJ's decision to deny Santander CAT protection

considering primarily the same country-condition evidence.

THE PETITION

Mayancela and Santander now petition this court for

review of the agency's decision. Their petition raises several

arguments. Concerning Mayancela, the petition asserts that the

agency erred when it held that she failed to establish the

requisite nexus between the past persecution she suffered at

Edison's hands and her membership in the particular social groups

Ecuadorian women and Ecuadorian females, and when it determined

- 18 - that she did not otherwise establish an independent well-founded

fear of future persecution on account of a protected ground. As

for Santander, the petition asseverates that the agency erred when

it held that the government established by a preponderance of the

evidence a fundamental change in Ecuador's circumstances rebutting

any presumption of a well-founded fear of future persecution on

account of his political opinion that could be afforded to him.

And lastly, respecting the couple, the petition argues that the

agency erred in holding that Mayancela and Santander did not

establish eligibility for protection under the CAT. We will

outline the relevant standard of review and then address

petitioners' arguments.

"We usually review decisions of the BIA, not the IJ."

Ordonez-Quino v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2014). However,

"when the BIA affirms the immigration judge's holdings but adds

its own analysis -- as it did here -- we review both decisions as

a unit." Lee v. Barr,

(1st Cir. 2020). In

conducting that review, we uphold the agency's factfinding so long

as it is supported by substantial evidence in the record. Topalli

v. Gonzales,

(1st Cir. 2005). "Questions of

law, of course, are reviewed de novo." Vasili v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2013). But, barring an error of law, we reverse

"only if the record is such as to compel a reasonable factfinder

- 19 - to reach a contrary determination." Chhay v. Mukasey,

(1st Cir. 2008).

Mayancela's Claims

We begin with petitioners' arguments relative to

Mayancela's claims. The gravamen of petitioners' argument

regarding Mayancela targets the agency's determination that

Edison's motivation to persecute her derived "solely" from his

generally violent disposition together with alcohol and drug use.

Petitioners maintain that the agency committed legal error when

reaching that conclusion by failing to engage the appropriate

mixed-motivation nexus analysis. They contend that the agency was

required, according to the immigration statute and this court's

precedents, to consider whether Mayancela's membership in the

social groups Ecuadorian women and Ecuadorian females was "at least

one central reason" motivating her persecutor, and they assert

that the agency failed to adequately analyze the question. See

(b)(1)(B)(i) ("To establish that the applicant is

a refugee within the meaning of such section, the applicant must

establish that race, religion, nationality, membership in a

particular social group, or political opinion was or will be at

least one central reason for persecuting the applicant."). The

government, for its part, does not dispute that a mixed-motivation

analysis was required, but it avers without much elucidation that

the agency "explicitly" conducted the "at least one central reason"

- 20 - test. Upon our independent review of the record bearing on the

issue, the court agrees with petitioners that the agency failed to

appropriately conduct the required mixed-motivation nexus analysis

of Mayancela's asylum claim, for reasons we will now explain.

This court has consistently emphasized that the IJ and

the BIA are required by the immigration statute to utilize a "one

central reason," mixed-motivation analysis when considering asylum

claims that potentially present mixed motivations. See

Espinoza-Ochoa v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2023);

Enamorado-Rodriguez v. Barr,

(1st Cir. 2019).

"Thus, just because the agency finds that persecutors were

motivated by a non-protected ground does not end the inquiry."

Espinoza-Ochoa, 89 F.4th at 235–36. The agency must look further

and determine whether the asserted protected ground nevertheless

remains a central reason motivating the persecution by inquiring

whether the protected ground is "incidental, tangential,

superficial, or subordinate to another reason for [the] harm."

Singh v. Mukasey,

(1st Cir. 2008).

Here, the IJ and the BIA failed to meet their statutory

obligation. Let's start with the IJ's decision.5 Critically,

5 Notably, the words "mixed motive" and "one central reason" did not appear in the IJ's analysis at all. See Espinoza-Ochoa,

(noting as support for the court's finding error that "the words 'mixed motive' and 'one central reason' d[id] not appear at all in the decisions below").

- 21 - "[n]othing in the IJ's ruling reads that the IJ utilized a

mixed-motive or 'at least one central reason' analysis, as the

statute requires." Enamorado-Rodriguez,

. The

government points to the IJ's conclusion that Edison "was not

motivated because [Mayancela] was an Ecuadorian woman or female,"

as its illustration indicating that the mixed-motivation analysis

was "explicitly" and appropriately conducted. However, while the

IJ did conclude as much, the issue is that the IJ did not engage

with the evidence he had earlier found credible supporting the

opposite conclusion in reaching his decision. See

(finding

error in the agency's nexus analysis when it failed to "explain

how" petitioner's protected social group was not at least one

central reason for his persecution in light of "[petitioner's]

uncontested testimony, deemed credible by the IJ," which supported

the contrary conclusion); Espinoza-Ochoa,

(finding

error in the agency's nexus analysis when it failed to adequately

examine "findings and other record evidence [which] could support

a finding that" petitioner was persecuted on account of his

proposed protected social group); see also Precetaj v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2011) (remanding to the agency to revisit

its past persecution assessment where the agency failed to probe

certain record evidence and where "[i]f there [was] a reason for

discounting or ignoring the[] [evidence], it [was] not explained

in [the agency's] decision"). Nor did the IJ's ruling explain how

- 22 - Mayancela's sex and gender were incidental, tangential,

superficial, or subordinate to Edison's motivations deriving from

his violent disposition, drug use, or alcohol. See Singh,

. In place of that sort of analysis, the IJ instead

merely pointed to testimony where Mayancela opined that Edison may

have been motivated to persecute her because he was a violent

person who used drugs and alcohol and concluded therefore that

Edison persecuted Mayancela "solely" for those reasons. The

government contends that the noted testimony by Mayancela "alone

easily s[upported]" the agency's decision, but we will tell why

the government is mistaken. Such dispositive reliance on certain

isolated moments in Mayancela's testimony as was practiced by the

IJ here was, as we will show, sorely misplaced; as Mayancela's

statements on Edison's substance abuse and his violent disposition

did not divest the agency of its obligation to conduct the

statutorily mandated "one central reason" analysis considering her

proposed protected grounds. See Espinoza-Ochoa,

(quoting Enamorado-Rodriguez,

) ("'Even on its

own terms,' the agency's conclusion that [the petitioner's]

persecution was motivated by [a non-protected ground] [did] not

itself exclude' the possibility that [a protected ground] was 'at

least one of the central reasons' for his persecution.").

This circuit's precedent actively anticipates that

asylum applicants will be unable to precisely demonstrate their

- 23 - persecutor's exact motivations, and, as such, and in line with the

immigration statute's "one central reason" mandate, "[w]e do not

require an asylum applicant to demonstrate that [s]he was singled

out only due to h[er] protected trait." Ordonez-Quino,

. Testimony identifying a non-protected motivation animating

an asylum applicant's persecutor is therefore insufficient in and

of itself to defeat an asylum claim. See id.; Espinoza-Ochoa, 89

F.4th at 235–36. That principle applies with particular force

when, as here, an asylum applicant was persecuted during childhood,

as "[r]arely will an applicant know the 'exact motivation' of h[er]

persecutors -- especially when [s]he was victimized as a young

child -- and, 'of course, persecutors may often have more than one

motivation.'" Ordonez-Quino,

(quoting Ivanov v.

Holder,

(1st Cir. 2013)).

The IJ's reasoning in this case clashes harshly against

that legal backdrop. Mayancela presented voluminous evidence that

Edison was motivated to harm her because of her membership in the

social groups Ecuadorian women and Ecuadorian females, including,

inter alia, testimony that Edison was sexually abusing her and

that "[Edison] would say . . . [sexual abuse] was normal and that

it was something that people did, and [she] just had to live with

it," along with declarations from several experts speaking to the

supposed norm in Ecuadorian society that "male control

extends . . . to a woman's body," together with data from the UN

- 24 - illuminating the high incidence of gender-based violence in

Ecuador. We do not comment on the compellingness or lack thereof

of the evidence presented, because the issue at hand -- the IJ's

failure to apply the appropriate standard when determining whether

the evidence established a nexus to a protected ground -- is a

question of law. See Espinoza-Ochoa, 89 F.4th at 235–36. But we

note the evidence to illustrate that Mayancela's testimony about

Edison's substance abuse and violent disposition did not

"foreclose[] the possibility of a protected ground," Aldana-Ramos

v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2014), as amended (Aug. 8,

2014), meaning the mixed-motivation test remained the appropriate

analysis,

So, to put this all briefly, when the IJ simply

highlighted a portion of Mayancela's testimony offering a

non-protected motivation underlying the persecution she suffered

and ended his nexus inquiry there without more explanation, he

committed legal error. See Enamorado-Rodriguez,

;

Espinoza-Ochoa,

.

The BIA, on appeal to it, was tasked with reviewing the

IJ's factual conclusions for clear error.

(d)(3)(i). But the BIA was obligated to review questions

of law, discretion, judgment, and all other issues on appeal from

the decision of the IJ de novo, "including the ultimate conclusion

of whether the facts identified by the IJ [were] sufficient to

- 25 - satisfy the legal requirements of nexus."6 Ferreira, 97 F.4th at

45 (1st Cir. 2024) (citing Matter of S-E-G-,

,

588 n.5 (BIA 2008)); see

(d)(3)(ii) (providing

the scope of BIA review). Here, however, the BIA did not apply de

novo review to the IJ's ultimate nexus determination, nor did it

recognize or correct the IJ's failure to conduct the appropriate

mixed-motivation nexus analysis in reaching its decision.

Although the BIA did briefly acknowledge the required

mixed-motivation test in its own opinion scrutinizing the IJ's

holdings -- stating that "even under a mixed-motives analysis,"

Mayancela did not establish the requisite nexus -- the Board did

not excavate the record relevant to the issue or elaborate on the

IJ's nexus analysis when doing so. See Khalil v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2024) ("To be sure, it is not enough for the

agency simply to invoke the 'one central reason' standard in its

6 While the government advances that "substantial evidence" is the appropriate standard applied by this court in reviewing the agency's ultimate nexus conclusion, the government does not comment on the appropriate standard of review the BIA should apply to the IJ's ultimate nexus conclusion, which is the relevant question occasioned by this case. Petitioners, for their part, aver that the appropriate standard of BIA review of the IJ's nexus conclusion is de novo, citing Ferreira v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2024). See

at 46 n.4 ("[T]he agency's nexus conclusion . . . involves factual determinations by the IJ but a de novo review by the BIA as to whether those facts taken together are sufficient to meet the legal standard."). The standard advanced by petitioners is in accord with this court's case law,

and, without any argument to the contrary, we will assume that it was the appropriate standard for the BIA to apply in its review of the IJ's ultimate nexus conclusion in this case.

- 26 - nexus analysis while simultaneously reasoning that the persecution

cannot be motivated by a protected ground simply because a

non-protected ground for the persecution also exists."). Instead,

the BIA continued to rely on the IJ's reasoning identifying a

non-protected motivation and ending its inquiry there, because the

BIA determined the IJ's nexus conclusion was not "clear[ly]

erro[neous]."7 On this record, because the possibility of a mixed

motivation was not foreclosed, the BIA's reliance in this way on

the IJ's inadequate nexus analysis without further scrutiny or

explanation was inappropriate.8 See Khalil,

. We

7Mayancela argues that the BIA's application of the clear error standard to the IJ's ultimate nexus conclusion was an independent legal error warranting vacatur and remand to the agency to reconsider its nexus decision. See Adeyanju, 27 F.4th at 44– 45 (stating that application of the wrong standard of review is an error of law). We pass on deciding whether application of the clear error standard warranted vacatur and remand here, but we note that the agency should apply the de novo standard of review to the IJ's nexus conclusion if the occasion arises on remand. 8In addition to failing to appropriately address or analyze the IJ's inadequate mixed-motivation analysis, the BIA, as petitioners point out, also introduced error into the case when it relied on inapposite agency and out-of-circuit precedent asserting that to establish the requisite nexus, Mayancela was required to show the harm she suffered "was intended to overcome or [was] based on animus towards" Ecuadorian women or Ecuadorian females generally. See Matter of M-R-M-S-,

(discussing the requirements to prove nexus in an asylum claim based on family membership); see also Morales,

(same). Unlike Mayancela's asylum claim, however, Morales and Matter of M-R-M-S- had to do with asylum claims based on family membership. See Morales, 51 F.4th at 558–59; Matter of M-R-M-S-,

. Moreover, and more significant, the nexus standard expressed in those cases requiring proof of "animus" has been definitively rejected by this circuit since the agency's decision. Pineda-Maldonado,

. That said, we decline

- 27 - therefore grant in part petitioners' petition for review, vacate

the agency's decision as to Mayancela's asylum claim, and remand

to the agency to conduct the appropriate mixed-motivation analysis

of her claim consistent with this opinion.9 See, e.g., id. at 59.

In addition, because the agency denied Mayancela's claim for

withholding of removal on the ground that her asylum claim, which

presented a lower burden, was denied, and because the agency

provided no other explanation that could suffice to sustain its

withholding of removal denial, we also vacate the agency's decision

as to Mayancela's withholding of removal claim and instruct the

agency to reconsider the claim on remand. See Pineda-Maldonado,

.

to determine whether the BIA's reference to an animus requirement was an error meriting reversal -- but we note that the agency should not require a showing of "animus" as an element of Mayancela's asylum claim when considering the claim on remand. 9 In addition to her argument that the agency erred in failing to conduct the required mixed-motivation nexus analysis, Mayancela argues that the record compelled a finding that her membership in the social groups Ecuadorian women and Ecuadorian females was one central reason she was persecuted. We decline to address that argument, as the agency will have an opportunity to reconsider Mayancela's asylum claim under the appropriate standard and resolve the question on review. We also decline to address Mayancela's argument that the record compelled a finding that she possessed a well-founded fear of future persecution, as the agency's contrary finding was also affected by its nexus conclusion which it will reconsider on remand.

- 28 - Santander's Claims

We move to address petitioners' arguments relative to

Santander's claims. Petitioners argue that the agency erred when

it determined that although Santander had presented evidence

sufficient to prove past persecution, the government showed by a

preponderance of the evidence that there was a fundamental change

in Ecuador's conditions rebutting any presumed well-founded fear

of future persecution to which Santander may have been entitled.10

Petitioners assert that the record compelled a contrary finding.

They also say that even if the presumption of a well-founded fear

of future persecution was rebutted, the record nonetheless

compelled the conclusion that Santander established an independent

well-founded fear of future persecution sufficient to support his

10Santander does not address the timeliness of his asylum application, nor does the government. Recall, the IJ found that Santander's application was filed after the one-year statutory bar and that no extraordinary or changed circumstances merited its consideration, which would be dispositive of his asylum claim typically. See

(a)(2)(B). However, unusually, while the BIA here did adopt and affirm the IJ's decision, it expressly declined to resolve the timeliness question in doing so, reasoning that Santander's asylum application failed whether timely or not. See Esteban-Garcia v. Garland,

, 190– 91 (1st Cir. 2024) (quoting López-Pérez v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2022) (explaining that this court reviews "the IJ's decision to the extent of the adoption, and the BIA's decision as to [any] additional ground")); Tillery v. Lynch,

(1st Cir. 2016) (explaining that when "the BIA rest[s] its decision on an alternative basis . . . it is the BIA's opinion that serves as the final agency decision under review before [this court]"). As such, considering this case as it comes before us, we too decline to comment on the timeliness of Santander's asylum application, and we proceed on the path the agency trod.

- 29 - asylum claim. The government counters, saying the evidence the

agency relied on -- namely that PAIS was no longer controlling

Ecuador's presidency at the time of the agency's decision and that

Santander's former coworker and Pachakutik Party colleague was the

then-mayor of his hometown, Cañar -- was sufficient to rebut the

presumption as well as to establish that Santander's independent

fear of future persecution was not well-founded. We will first

address the arguments relative to the presumption, and then discuss

the arguments relative to Santander's supposed independent showing

of a well-founded fear.

But first, let us explain what it takes to rebut the

presumption of a well-founded fear of future persecution before

addressing Santander's argument that the government failed to

satisfy the criteria. The relevant immigration regulation

provides that "the government may rebut the presumption [of a

well-founded fear of future persecution] with a showing of a

fundamental change in circumstances in the country [to which

petitioner will be removed] or the opportunity to relocate safely

within [that country]." Precetaj,

(citing

(b)(1)(i)). "Where the presumption is rebutted, then

absent other evidence from the applicant, asylum must be denied."

To successfully establish a fundamental change in

circumstances in a country sufficient to rebut the presumption of

a well-founded fear of future persecution, this court has explained

- 30 - that "abstract evidence of generalized changes in country

conditions, without more, cannot [suffice]." Palma-Mazariegos,

. Rather, we have emphasized that "to be effective,

evidence of changed country conditions must negate a petitioner's

particular fear."

(citing Quevedo v. Ashcroft,

(1st Cir. 2003)). As such, an assessment of the adequacy of

rebuttal evidence "require[s] [an] individualized analysis"

examining whether the identified changes in country conditions

negated the asylum applicant's showing of "specific personal

danger." Quevedo,

. We review the agency's decision

on that score under the deferential substantial evidence standard

of review. Mendez,

.

Let's begin with petitioners' argument about the

sufficiency of the government's rebuttal evidence. The

fundamental changes in Ecuador's political conditions identified

by the government and relied upon by the agency showing a

fundamental change in circumstances in Ecuador were related to

shifts in political authority after elections on the national level

and locally in Santander's hometown of Cañar. Petitioners argue

that the agency erred in its reliance on those electoral shifts in

political power because the identified changes in government

"alone [did] not render [Pachakutik party members] safe from

persecution," and they say that other evidence in the record

compelled a contrary conclusion.

- 31 - Petitioners' notion that changes in political authority

on the national and local levels do not independently suffice to

rebut a presumptively well-founded fear of future political

persecution has some support in our case law, see, e.g., Mendez,

, but it does not align with the record in this

case. Here, the agency plainly considered more than just shifts

in national and local political appointments in its determination

that circumstances in Ecuador had fundamentally changed since

Santander suffered persecution for his support of the Pachakutik

Party. See Uruci v. Holder,

(1st Cir. 2009)

(rejecting the argument that the agency erred in its reliance on

a national shift in power when "[t]he Parliamentary elections were

but one piece of evidence considered in the aggregate"). While

the agency did emphasize the evidence demonstrating President

Correa, the president of Ecuador and leader of PAIS at the time

Santander was persecuted, "was subsequently voted out of office

and left Ecuador in 2015," along with evidence that PAIS thereafter

lost power over the national government in 2021 after elections

which "were deemed free and fair," and evidence that a member of

the Pachakutik Party subsequently won the Cañar mayoralty in

2023 -- the agency also clearly considered additional evidence

looking beyond elections. Indeed, the agency expressly noted in

its decision its awareness of "the First Circuit case law which

stands for the proposition that a change in political party at the

- 32 - national government is insufficient alone to constitute a

fundamental change in circumstances," and it thereafter pointed in

addition to evidence submitted by the government showing that

"members of . . . the Pachakutik party" did not face persecution

as a result of the 2021 national elections where PAIS lost power,

as well as evidence indicating that Pachakutik Party members were

not facing violence on a local level in Cañar, where Santander's

coworker and Pachakutik Party colleague had won the mayoralty.

So, the straightforward response to petitioners' argument is: The

agency did not rely solely on changes in political office to

conclude the government showed by a preponderance of the evidence

a fundamental change in Ecuador's conditions, but rather

appropriately considered those shifts together with other

probative evidence in the record to reach its conclusion which was

"supported by reasonable, substantial, and probative evidence on

the record considered as a whole." See INS v. Elias–Zacarias,

(1992) (quoting 8 U.S.C. § 1105a(a)(4)); see also

Uruci,

.

After attacking the evidence the agency relied on in

determining that Santander's presumption of a well-founded fear of

future persecution had been rebutted, petitioners point to some

evidence that the agency declined to address, evidence which they

believe compelled a contrary conclusion that Ecuador's conditions

had not fundamentally changed. However, petitioners fail to reveal

- 33 - any evidence so compelling as to authorize this court to disturb

the agency's determination that the relied-upon changes in

political conditions on both the local and national level bearing

directly on the past persecution Santander suffered, together with

the other evidence in the record, sufficed to prove the

government's burden. What petitioners point to as compelling

evidence -- reports that "[i]n 2019, Indigenous political

protestors faced violent crackdowns by the government during

protests," and other evidence showing that "multiple human rights

organizations [subsequently] found that the government committed

human rights violations in response to the 2019

protests" -- simply does not compel a contrary conclusion to that

reached by the agency. Concerning as the identified 2019 protest

incidents may be, the events took place before the events which

the agency relied on as establishing a fundamental change in

circumstances in Ecuador: PAIS losing power in 2021 and a

Pachakutik party member winning the Cañar mayoralty in 2022. See

Uruci,

(noting that evidence speaking to country

conditions at a point prior-in-time to the identified fundamental

changes in circumstances has limited probative value). And, to

the extent that petitioners rely on evidence relating to protests

and political violence in Ecuador in June 2022, after PAIS lost

power, they do not illustrate why that evidence of generalized

political violence compelled the conclusion that conditions in

- 34 - Ecuador had not changed such that Santander's particular fear of

being persecuted for his membership in the Pachakutik Party or of

being harmed by a member of PAIS was no longer well-founded. See

Tota v. Gonzales,

(1st Cir. 2006) (emphasizing

that the fundamental changes we focus on are those bearing on "the

specific circumstances that form the basis of a petitioner's

presumptive fear of future persecution"). We, therefore, based on

the record before us, affirm the agency's conclusion that the

government established a fundamental change in circumstances in

Ecuador rebutting any presumption to which Santander may have been

afforded. See

As for petitioners' argument that Santander possessed an

independent, well-founded fear of future persecution which the

record compelled the agency to recognize notwithstanding the

presumption, the ground petitioners offer sustaining that argument

collapses. Santander testified explicitly that his independent

fear of future persecution was that Rafael Correa may win a future

election and that PAIS would thereafter return to power in Ecuador,

so that is the fear of future persecution that we focus on. See

Quevedo,

. And, in our consideration of that narrow

fear, we find no evidence in the record compelling the conclusion

that Santander's fear of Correa's return was objectively

reasonable as his claim required. See Keisler,

.

Petitioners point to absolutely nothing indicating that there is

- 35 - any likelihood Rafael Correa or PAIS will return to power in

Ecuador, either on a national basis or locally in Santander's

hometown of Cañar. Petitioners' failure to produce such evidence

in the face of the evidence submitted by the government, which

depicted Correa and PAIS's fall from power, was fatal to their

averment that the record compelled their preferred factual

inference that Correa and PAIS will rise again. See

(holding that the record did not compel the conclusion that a

petitioner's fear of future persecution was objectively and

subjectively reasonable when the petitioner failed to "provide[]

an explanation for his continued fears").

Putting it all together, because the record did not

compel the conclusion that circumstances in Ecuador had not

fundamentally changed, and because the record did not compel the

conclusion that Santander established an independent well-founded

fear of future persecution either, we affirm the agency's decision

denying Santander's asylum claim, and, therefore, we affirm the

denial of his claim for withholding of removal alongside. See

Decky,

.

The CAT Claims

Lastly, the couple's contention that the record

compelled the conclusion that they were entitled to protection

pursuant to the CAT. As before, we will outline the relevant law

and then address petitioners' arguments tracing the assertion.

- 36 - Recall, the standard for CAT relief is generally more

challenging to meet than the standard for asylum. See De Oliveira,

; see also Romilus v. Ashcroft,

(1st

Cir. 2004). To qualify for CAT protection, applicants bear the

burden of demonstrating that conduct rising to the level of torture

would more likely than not befall them, at the hands of the

government, or with its consent or its acquiescence, should they

be removed to their home country. Romilus,

. The

threshold which a CAT applicant is required to reach to demonstrate

that the anticipated torture is sufficiently likely to

occur -- more likely than not -- is markedly higher than the

minimum probability of future persecution which an asylum claim

requires. Id.; see also INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca,

(1987) (explaining that as little as a 10% risk of the occurrence

of persecution might support a well-founded fear of future

persecution sufficient to establish an asylum claim). In contrast,

however, unlike an applicant for asylum, a CAT claimant need not

establish a nexus between the torture anticipated upon removal and

a protected ground to succeed. Romilus,

.

Here, in its proceedings, the agency, considering the

record before it, determined that petitioners failed to establish

the requisite likelihood that they would be tortured with the

government's consent or its acquiescence should they be removed to

Ecuador. We review the agency's determination regarding the

- 37 - probability of such conduct's occurrence for substantial evidence.

See Cabrera v. Garland,

(1st Cir. 2024); see

also Bazile v. Garland,

, 14 (1st Cir. 2023) (explaining

that "[f]or purposes of the substantial evidence test, predictive

findings as to what may or may not transpire at a future date are

regarded as findings of fact").

As the reader may remember, Mayancela told the agency

that she would face torture at Edison's hands should she be removed

to Ecuador. The agency did not comment on whether Edison's

anticipated misconduct rose to the level of torture; it denied

Mayancela's CAT claim on the ground that she failed to present

sufficient evidence showing a likelihood that any torture

inflicted by Edison would occur with the government's consent or

its acquiescence. The agency noted as support for its conclusion

that after Mayancela reported Edison to the local police, the

police "attempted to locate [him] by sending letters and call[ing]

him." Santander, for his share, told the agency that he would be

tortured if removed to Ecuador, by who he did not say, on account

of his political beliefs. In response to that assertion, the

agency emphasized that "President Co[r]rea [was] no longer in

power, and [that] the [then-]current mayor of [Santander's]

hometown [was] from [Santander's] own political party," and it

reasoned therefore that "there [was] insufficient evidence that

- 38 - were he to return, the government officials or someone acting on

their behalf would acquiesce to [his] torture."

As we turn now to petitioners' part before us, we stress

that petitioners missed their occasion to shine a light on any

evidence or law contradicting the agency's identified evidence or

its related conclusions. At the moment in their petition that

called for reasoned, targeted argumentation challenging the

agency's finding it unlikely they would be tortured with state

acquiescence should they be removed to Ecuador, petitioners chose

instead to perfunctorily point to their earlier asylum arguments

about Ecuador's country conditions, to aver that, considering

those arguments, the "record supported a finding that the

Government of Ecuador is unwilling and unable to control

politically motivated violence, and gender-based violence," and to

argue further that, in light of said supposedly compelled finding,

the record compelled a conclusion "contrary to the holdings of the

Board and Immigration Judge, [that] any future torture would occur

at the acquiescence of the Ecuadorian authorities." On its face,

the analysis petitioners present may appear lacking in that it

does not illustrate why the record compelled the conclusion that

future conduct rising to the level of torture would more likely

than not occur in the first instance. Cf. Cabrera,

("Indeed, we have cautioned repeatedly that generalized

country conditions evidence (by itself) is not sufficient for a

- 39 - grant of CAT protection."). But we need not address the analysis'

merits here. That is so because, when petitioners attempted to

piggyback on their asylum arguments to avoid the required

meaningful examination of the distinct elements of their

independent CAT claims, that "amount[ed] to waiver, plain and

simple." See Alvarado-Reyes v. Garland,

(1st

Cir. 2024) (citing Sok v. Mukasey,

(1st Cir.

2008)). We therefore affirm the agency's denial of petitioners'

applications for CAT relief.

THE DECISION

For the reasons heretofore identified, we grant the

petition for review in part, vacate the agency's decision insofar

as it denied Mayancela's asylum and withholding of removal claims,

and remand for reconsideration of Mayancela's asylum and

withholding of removal claims -- and her children's derivative

asylum claims -- in a manner consistent with this opinion.

- 40 -